基于实例灰色模糊聚类的造价快速估算  

Grey and fuzzy clustering method for quick cost estimation

作　　者：陈一飞[1] 李芳成[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学工程学院,广东湛江524000

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2011年第3期362-366,370,共6页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：湛江市科技攻关项目;广东省软科学基金项目(编号:2008A070300007)

摘　　要：针对可行性研究阶段往往难以可靠、及时地进行造价估算的问题,提出了基于造价实例灰色模糊聚类的造价快速估算模型.模型将灰色关联分析和模糊聚类相结合,通过计算待估算实例和参考实例设计指标参数间的综合相似贴近性灰色关联度,以考察二者的相似性;以综合相似度集为初始数据构造各实例的相似矩阵,采用模糊传递闭包法计算等价矩阵,然后取不同的阀值以实现实例动态聚类,最终筛选出与待估算实例最相关的实例集合,实例集造价区间即为估算造价最可能区间,采用k折交叉法验证模型的可靠性.最后以办公楼造价估算16个实例,验证估价模型的有效性和可靠性.结果表明,该模型能够快速有效地估算工程造价,为造价估算提供了一种新方法.In order to solve the problem that reliable and timely cost estimation is often difficult to realize in the feasibility study stage,a quick cost estimation model is proposed based on grey fuzzy clustering of cost case.The model combines grey relational analysis with fuzzy clustering,by calculating synthetic degree of incidence of the design case and reference cases＇ index to study the similarities between the two.Then the cases＇ similarity matrix based on synthetic degree of incidence set and equivalent matrix based on transitive closure are built.A different threshold value is taken in order to achieve dynamic cluster.The most correlated case sets are selected to get interval of estimated cost,which is the most likely cost range of the new case;and then k fold cross-validation method is used to verify the reliability of the model.Finally,validity and reliability of the models are evaluated with 16 cases of office-buildings.The results show that the model is effective and reliable in estimating the project cost,so as to develop a new method for cost estimation.

关 键 词：造价估算 综合关联度 灰色模糊聚类 k折交叉验证 

分 类 号：TU723.3[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]