配电网风险评价体系及其应用  

Risk Assessment System of Distribution Network and Its Application

作　　者：杨媛媛[1] 杨京燕[1] 黄镇[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《现代电力》2011年第4期18-23,共6页Modern Electric Power

摘　　要：为全面有效地评价配电网安全水平,提出了基于效用理论的配电网风险评价体系:应用统计方法并结合历史数据获取事故概率,运用效用理论建立严重度函数。该评价体系除包含线路过负荷、母线低电压风险指标外,还针对配电网的特点建立了负荷点停电风险指标,并可评价配电网的综合风险。在此基础上开发了配电网风险评价软件,以北京市某区10kV典型电缆接线为例进行风险评价,结果验证了该评价体系的有效性和合理性。This paper puts forward a risk assessment system of distribution network based on the utility theory to evaluate security of distribution network effectively.The probability of accident is acquired from historical data by using of statistical methods and the severity function is established based on the utility theory.Besides the line over-load risk index and the bus low-voltage risk index,this assessment system has also established the outage risk index of load buses according to the characteristics of the distribution network,which can assess the comprehensive risk of the distribution network.In addition,the relevant software is developed.In the end,taking the 10kV typical cable networks in Beijing certain district as example,the validity and rationality of this assessment system is proved.

关 键 词：风险评价体系 效用理论 停电风险 配电网 风险计算软件 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]