热带太平洋海平面高度年际异常及其与中国夏季降水的关系  

Interannual anomaly of the tropical Pacific sea surface height and its relationship with summer precipitation in China

作　　者：李丽平[1,2] 王超[1,2] 章开美[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2011年第3期269-280,共12页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)201006038);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951601);国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC29B02)

摘　　要：利用1980—2009年共30a的NCEP逐月GODAS海平面高度(sea surface height,SSH)和中国160站降水资料,系统分析了热带太平洋海平面高度季节变化及年际异常特征,初步探讨了海平面高度年际异常与中国夏季降水年际异常之间的相关关系。结果表明:1)热带太平洋海平面高度气候场总体呈"V"型分布,西高东低、西北部高于西南部;西北部高值区稳定少动,春夏季大于0.8m的范围较秋冬季略有扩大;西南部高值区春季范围最大且偏北,夏季最小且偏南;赤道区域海平面高度春秋季高于冬夏季。2)多年平均而言,热带西太平洋、西南太平洋的海平面高度年际异常最强,且冬春季较夏秋季更强,赤道中东太平洋年际异常也较大,且秋冬季异常强度和范围都更大,秋、冬和春季海平面高度年际异常与ENSO事件关系密切。3)当冬季发生ENSO事件,可利用热带太平洋海平面高度异常与中国夏季降水异常之间的同期相关关系,预测次年(ENSO事件衰减年)夏季江南地区特别是洞庭湖和鄱阳湖流域、青藏高原东部、江淮流域、内蒙东部降水可能偏多,黄河中下游流域的河套、华北地区以及华南则降水偏少。By using NCEP GODAS monthly sea surface height（SSH） and 160-station monthly precipitation data in China,the seasonal and interannual characteristics of SSH are analyzed over the tropical Pacific,along with the correlation relationships between SSH and summer rainfall discussed.The results show that：1）The tropical Pacific SSH takes on ＂V＂ pattern in the climatic field on the whole,it is higher in the western part than in the eastern part,and higher in the northwest part than in the southwestern part.The high value area is more stable in the northwest,the value（greater than 0.8 m） range is larger in spring and summer than in autumn and winter.The high value area in the southwestern part is largest（smallest） and northerly（southerly） in spring（summer）.The SSH is higher in spring and autumn than in summer and winter over the equatorial zone.2）The SSH interannual anomalies are strongest over the tropical western and southwest Pacific,and stronger in winter and spring than in summer and autumn.The interannual anomalies are also strong over the equatorial middle and eastern Pacific,which are stronger in the autumn and winter and are unusual of the greater intensity and scope.There is closely relationship between the SSH interannual anomaly and ENSO events in the autumn,winter and spring.3）When ENSO event takes place in the winter,according to the simultaneous relationship between the tropic Pacific SSH and the summer precipitation of China,it can be predicted that the precipitation will significantly be more than normal value over the south of the Yangtze River,especially Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake region,eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Yangtze-Huai River Valley,eastern part of Neimen,while less than normal over the He Tao area,the North China and the South China in the coming year summer

关 键 词：海平面高度 年际异常 热带太平洋 中国夏季降水 

分 类 号：P461.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]