海温强迫下的东亚夏季大气环流潜在可预报性特征  

Potential predictability of East Asian summer atmospheric circulation forced by sea surface temperature

作　　者：李忠贤[1] 陈海山[1] 曾刚[1] 倪东鸿[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2011年第3期281-287,共7页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40905045);江苏省"333高层次人才培养工程"项目;江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目

摘　　要：利用大气环流模式NCARCAM3,进行22a(1979—2000年)、每年8个初值的集合试验,并采用方差分析方法,研究了观测海温强迫下东亚夏季大气环流的潜在可预报性。结果表明,夏季东亚地区海平面气压场的潜在可预报性总体偏低,在中国区域呈东南高、西北低的分布特征;850hPa纬向风场、对流层500～200hPa平均温度场和500hPa位势高度场在低纬度地区的潜在可预报性明显高于中高纬度地区。500hPa位势高度场的潜在可预报性较高,东亚大部分地区大于0.5,尤其华南地区大于0.7。夏季东亚500hPa位势高度场的潜在可预报性具有明显的年际变化特征,并与夏季南海海温异常关系密切。与正常年份相比,在夏季南海海温偏暖或者偏冷年,东亚500hPa位势高度场的潜在可预报性较高。The ensemble experiments composed of 8 members have been preformed from 1979 to 2000 by the National Center for Atmospheric Research（NCAR） Community Atmosphere Model Version 3（CAM3）.Each experiment is forced by the observed sea surface temperature（SST）.The analysis of variance is applied to investigate the potential predictability of East Asian summer atmospheric circulation.Results show that the potential predictability of summer sea level pressure is low in East Asia as a whole,and is high（low） in Southeast（Northwest） China.The potential predictability of East Asian summer 850 hPa zonal wind,tropospheric temperature averaged from 500 to 200 hPa,and 500 hPa geopotential height is higher in low latitudes than that in mid-high latitudes.The potential predictability of summer 500 hPa geopotential height is high,which is greater than 0.5 in the East Asia,especially larger than 0.7 over South China.It is found that the potential predictability of East Asian summer 500 hPa geopotential height exhibits distinct interannual variability,which is closely related with sea surface temperature anomaly（SST） in South China Sea in summer.Compared with that in the normal SST years,the potential predictability of East Asian summer 500 hPa geopotential height is higher in the warmer or colder SST years

关 键 词：潜在可预报性 夏季大气环流 海面温度 东亚地区 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]