NCEP、ECMWF及CMC全球集合预报业务系统发展综述  

A Review on the developments of NCEP,ECMWF and CMC global ensemble forecast system

作　　者：麻巨慧[1,2,3] 朱跃建 王盘兴[1] 段明铿[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD 20746 USA [3]UCAR, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2011年第3期370-380,共11页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program(HFIP)

摘　　要：总结了目前最具代表性的3个全球集合预报系统(global ensemble forecast system,GEFS)——美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)、欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)和加拿大气象中心(Canadian Meteoro-logical Centre,CMC)建成至今的发展概况。由于计算资源的不断扩展,各中心集合预报系统的模式分辨率、集合成员数也随之增加。同时各中心都在不断地致力于发展和完善初始和模式扰动方法,来更好地估计与初值和模式有关的不确定性,促进预报技巧的提高。其中初始扰动方法从最初的奇异向量法(ECMWF)、增殖向量法(NCEP)和观测扰动法(CMC)更新为现在的集合资料同化—奇异向量法(ECMWF)、重新尺度化集合转换法(NCEP)和集合卡尔曼滤波(CMC)。在估计模式不确定性方面,ECMWF和CMC都修订了各自的随机参数化方案和多参数化方案,NCEP最近也在模式中加入了随机全倾向扰动。为提高全球高影响天气预报的准确率,TIGGE计划(the THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)的提出增进了国际间对多模式、多中心集合预报的合作研究,北美集合预报系统(North American ensemble forecast system,NAEFS)为建立全球多模式集合预报系统提供了业务框架,这都将有助于未来全球交互式业务预报系统的构建。The paper summarizes the developments of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP）,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ECMWF）,and the Canadian Meteorological Centre（CMC）,which are the most representative of global ensemble forecast system（GEFS）.Due to the enlarging of computational resources,the model resolution and ensemble size of their GEFS subsequently increase.At the same time,for promoting the improvement of the forecast skill,they all devote to develop the initial and model perturbation methods used to simulate the effect of initial and model uncertainties.The initial perturbation methods are updated from the singular vector（SV） method（ECMWF）,the breeding method（NCEP） and the perturbed observation（PO） method（CMC） to the ensemble of data assimilation and singular vector（EDA-SV） method（ECMWF）,the ensemble transform with rescaling（ETR） method（NCEP） and the ensemble Kalman filter（EnKF） method（CMC）.Several attempts are also made to account for model-related uncertainty.ECMWF and CMC have revised their stochastic physics parameterization tendencies（ECMWF） and multi-parameterization（CMC） schemes,and NCEP also develops stochastic total tendency perturbation to estimate the model-related uncertainty.To accelerate improvements on the accuracy of global high-impact weather forecasts,TIGGE（the THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble） was initiated to enhance international collaboration on multi-center and multi-model ensemble forecast,and NAEFS（North American ensemble forecast system） can provide an operational framework for global multi-model ensemble forecast system.They are all helpful for developing the global interactive forecast system（GIFS）.

关 键 词：全球集合预报系统 初值不确定性 模式不确定性 多模式和多中心集合预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]