一种城市动态交通网络紧急疏散路线确定的方法  

A Method of Selecting Emergency Evacuation Routes in Urban Dynamic Traffic Network

作　　者：庞明宝[1] 任沙沙[1] 张晶晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木工程学院,天津300401

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2011年第7期118-123,共6页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50808064);河北省自然科学基金项目(E2011Z02073);天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(08ZCKFSF01100)

摘　　要：研究城市动态交通网络紧急疏散路线确定问题。针对城市交通网络的不确定性并考虑到智能交通系统的发展,在分析城市灾害应急管理对疏散路线确定要求的基础上,提出通过离线方式确定预案和根据实时信息调整预案的紧急疏散路线确定的方法,简介了实现该方法的系统结构。在离线模块中,利用已有路网统计先验信息建立基于时间依赖网络城市交通紧急疏散线路预案的确定模型,采用最小费用流与时间依赖非FIFO网络最短路的综合算法对模型进行优化求解;在在线调度模块中,采用非参数回归方法预测动态路阻,建立基于实时信息的紧急疏散线路模型,采用F loyd算法进行优化求解,对方案予以调整;仿真试验分析了该智能思想的效果,证明了该原理与方法的有效性。The selection of emergency evacuation routes in urban traffic network with dynamic information was studied.Based on the uncertain characteristic of urban traffic network and the demand of urban disaster emergency management to evacuation routes selection,considering the development of ITS,a method for selection of emergency evacuation routes by planning evacuation route scheme in off-line module and adjusting evacuation route scheme using real-time traffic information in on-line module,was proposed.The structure of the system was briefly introduced.In off-line module,the model of planning emergency evacuation routes based on in time dependent networks was established by using the prior knowledge of traffic network statistics.The synthetic algorithm in the concrete optimization course for solution was adopted by using the successive shortest path flow and the shortest path in the non-first-in-first-out time dependent network.In on-line module,the model of selection of emergency evacuation routes based on real-time traffic information was established with forecasted road impedance by using non-parametric regression forecasting method.The Floyd algorithm was adopted in the concrete optimization course for solution,and the updated scheme of evacuation routes was implemented.The effects were analysed by simulation experiment,which shows that the principle and the method are correct and feasible.

关 键 词：交通工程 紧急疏散线路 动态交通网络 动态路阻 最短路径矩阵 非参数回归预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]