粮食价格保护政策增收增产效应分析  

Effect Analysis on Income and Output of Food Price Protection Policy

作　　者：曾福生[1] 戴鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院,长沙410128

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2011年第3期11-17,共7页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"粮食大省的粮食安全责任和实现机理研究"(08BJY111)

摘　　要：本文在供给—需求分析模型中引入时间和理性预期因素,对粮食价格保护政策收入和产量效应进行分析发现,短期内,粮食价格保护有助于粮农增收,粮食增产,但长期内,粮食价格保护会压缩粮农收入空间,减少粮食产量,并为随后的实证分析所证实。因此,粮食价格保护政策不是长久之计,应从更深层次构建粮食安全和粮农增效的长效机制。Through the introduction of the time and expectation factors in the supply-demand model,t his paper analyzed the effects of income and output of food price protection policy, and found that, in thes hort time, food price protection policy contributed to increases food production and improve the income oft he farmers＇, but in the long time, grain price protection policy would shrink the space of the farmers＇i ncome and reduce the grain output. Therefore, in order to increase the farmers＇ income and grain outputc ontinuously, and the effect of food price protection policy was not obvious.

关 键 词：价格保护政策 理性预期 粮农收入 粮食总产 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]