China＇s Economic Outlook into 2030： Transformation, Simulation and Policy Suggestions  

作　　者：张平 王宏淼 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China

出　　处：《China Economist》2011年第4期4-15,共12页中国经济学人（英文版）

摘　　要：This article discusses China＇s economic growth path and the potential challenges to becoming a high-income country by utilizing simulation to provide potential policy responses. The authors believe it is necessary to optimize spatial allocation and promote urbanization, but distorted urbanization must be avoided as it will only perpetuate the current problems. The core strategy is to change government behavior to allow the market to allocate resources. It is important to maintain stable growth in the short term and balance the economic structure in the medium- and long-term. In particular, optimizing spatial allocation must constitute a critical part of the policy adjustment. Only with a viable urbanization model can the country shift from the catch-up pursuit via industrialization to a balanced approach of sustainable growth. This can be done through gradual guidance and policy corrections. China should continue to uphold the ＂scientific concept of development＂ as the overarching principle governing socioeconomic development, and create a unique approach to sustainability where the economy grows steadily, sharing is universal and people live in harmony with nature.

关 键 词：balanced structure economic growth sustainable development urbanization technological advances 

分 类 号：F121[经济管理—世界经济] TU984.712[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]