雅砻江流域中长期径流预测方法研究  

Study on forecast method of mid-long term runoff in Yalong River Basin

作　　者：程时宏[1] 陆涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]二滩水电开发有限责任公司,四川成都610051 [2]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《人民长江》2011年第11期48-52,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50539140);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679098);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划(2008BAB29B09);美国能源基金会"中国可持续能源"资助项目(G-0610-08581)

摘　　要：为科学合理安排流域梯级水电站水库运行方式并充分利用水量发电,以期为梯级电站发电预计划的编制提供重要依据,采用物理成因分析法和多种数理统计方法对雅砻江流域梯级水电站的年、月入库流量进行预测。年、月平均流量预测均采用定性和定量结合的方法,预测结果具有较高可信度。根据生产实际的需要和径流的实际变化情况,对月、旬径流分枯期、过渡期和丰水期单独建模进行预测,并基于丰枯形势分析结果给出了径流预测的推荐值。研究还表明,中长期径流预测要充分把握和降水密切相关的气象因子的变化,并以此来指导径流预测,提高径流预测精度。In order to determine the operation mode of cascade hydropower stations and reservoirs reasonably and scientifically and provide a basis for pre-plan making of power generation,we forecast the annual and monthly reservoir inflow of cascade hydropower stations on Yalong River using physical-cause analysis and multiple mathematical statistics method.The method combining both qualitative and quantitative analysis is adopted to forecast the average annual and monthly discharge and the results are highly reliable.According to the practical requirement and actual variation of the runoffs,we establish an independent model to forecast the monthly and ten-day runoff in dry season,transition season and wet season respectively;the recommended forecast value of the runoff is provided on the basis of dry-wet situation.It is indicated that we should master the variation of meteorological factors that is closely related to the precipitation to guide the forecast work,so as to improve the forecast precision.

关 键 词：中长期 径流预测 方法研究 梯级开发 物理成因 雅砻江流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]