基于最大熵原理的地下水开采降深风险分析  

Risk analysis of groundwater system based on principle of maximum entropy

作　　者：杜朝阳[1] 钟华平[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《人民长江》2011年第11期95-98,共4页Yangtze River

摘　　要：地下水开采风险研究是地下水资源管理中的一个重要课题。采用牛顿迭代法推导了最大熵密度函数,验证了最大熵原理的有效性及精度。根据地下水系统不确定性的特点和影响因素,建立了基于最大熵原理的地下水开采降深风险分析模型。采用该模型对某水源地进行地下水开采风险分析,同时用JC(验算点)法验证该模型的可靠性。计算结果表明,二者结果相差甚小,从而说明在地下水的开采降深风险分析中,最大熵模型具有较好的可行性和较高的可靠性。The risk study of groundwater utilization is of great importance to groundwater resources management.We adopt Newton iterative method to deduce the maximum entropy density function and verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the principle of maximum entropy（POME）.According to the characteristics of the uncertainty in groundwater system and influential factors and based on the POME,we establish a risk analysis model for water level drawdown of groundwater exploitation.The model is applied to the risk analysis of groundwater exploitation in a water sources field.Meanwhile,its reliability is also checked by the JC method.The results show that there is no large difference for the calculation results by the two methods,indicating that the POME model has better feasibility and higher reliability when applied in risk analysis of groundwater drawdown.

关 键 词：开采降深 最大熵原理 风险分析 地下水 

分 类 号：P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]