应用证据权法预测南美斑潜蝇的发生  

Prediction of Liriomyza huidobrensis Blanchard by Weights of Evidence Method

作　　者：高立辉[1] 陈文龙[1] 胡文静[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵州大学昆虫研究所贵州省山地农业病虫害重点实验室,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《山地农业生物学报》2011年第3期225-229,共5页Journal of Mountain Agriculture and Biology

基　　金：贵州省科学技术基金项目[黔科合计(2004)3024];贵州省科技厅农业攻关项目[黔科合NY2010字(2010)3026];中国烟草总公司贵州省公司科技项目(200901)

摘　　要：利用证据权法,选择温度、湿度、降水量及日照时数作为影响南美斑潜蝇数量的证据层,通过计算后获得其相应的先验概率(P先验)、权重(W)及相关系数(C)等,并根据后验概率(P后验)的计算结果对各预测点进行验证,可知有80%的发生点分布在中、高概率区,说明该预测模型对农业虫害防治工作具有一定的指导作用。Using the Weights of Evidence Method,temperature,humidity,rainfall,as well as sunshine duration were employed to evaluate the influence in the amount of Liriomyza huidobrensis Blanchard in the present work.Prior probability,Weight and Contrast of each evidence layer were established by computing.Meanwhile,we validated the prediction point on the basis of Posterior probability,and found that 80% occurrence points distributed in the middle and high probability zone.It indcated that this method could be an useful tool of predicting occurence degree of agricultural pests.

关 键 词：证据权法 南美斑潜蝇 预测 

分 类 号：S431[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]