区域土地综合承载力个案分析:以长沙市为例——基于系统动力学视角  

Land resources synthetic carrying capacity in Changsha city:A systematic dynamics perspective

作　　者：周杨慧[1] 朱红梅[1] 张玉平[1] 周密[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学资源与环境学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第3期23-28,共6页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：湖南省科技厅资助项目(2008FJ3044)

摘　　要：根据系统动力学原理,充分考虑耕地与建设用地创造的价值和生态用地对经济的约束,进一步扩大土地承载力研究范围,分析土地综合承载力的系统结构及其相互关系,并构建土地综合承载力系统动力学仿真模型。在此基础上以2008年为基期,对长沙市2009—2020年土地承载力变化进行仿真模拟,其结果表明:人口低速发展、经济稳步发展、粮食单产较快增长的发展模式是长沙市的最优选择,其土地综合承载力最高。Based on the principles and methodology of system dynamics,land resource synthetic carrying capacity system dynamics model of Changsha city was established according to the analysis of land resource synthetic carrying capacity system,its structure and the interrelation inside the structure.Taking 2008 as the base year,we simulated the changes of land resource synthetic carrying capacity from 2009 to 2020 in Changsha city.The results show the model characterized by lowest population increasing rate,stable economic development and rapidly growth in grain yield per hectare is the best model for Changsha city.

关 键 词：土地综合承载力 系统动力学模型 长沙市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]