11月气候异常型及前期环流信号  

The Patterns of Anomalous Climate and Their Pre-circulation Signals in November

作　　者：杨小波[1,2,3] 王永光[2] 梁潇云[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610072 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]四川省气候中心,成都610072

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2011年第3期275-282,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC51B04)

摘　　要：利用全国160站1951—2008年11月温度、降水资料和同期秋季NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa高度场再分析资料,分析了我国东部季风区11月暖湿、暖干、冷湿、冷干年同期环流特征,并对同期、前期环流特征进行了差异t检验。结果表明:暖型(冷型)同期环流对应乌拉尔山阻塞高压不明显(明显),欧亚中高纬度地区盛行纬向(经向)环流;干型(湿型)同期环流对应西太平洋副热带高压偏弱(强)、偏东(西)。差异t检验分布特征表明:在亚洲中高纬度地区,暖干、冷湿型(暖湿、冷干型)同期环流主要表现为南北(东西)气压场的差异;暖干、冷湿型的前期和同期环流特征分别具有EU(Eurasia)和反EU遥相关距平结构,而暖湿、冷干型前期和同期环流特征分别具有反PNA(Pacific/North American)和PNA遥相关距平结构。Based on the stationery data of temperature and precipitation of 160 stations in China in November, the reanalysis data of 500 hPa geopotential height（GPH）of NCEP/NCAR,the four circulation patterns corresponding to the warm and wet,warm and dry,cold and wet,cold and dry in the monsoon regions over eastern China are analysed,and the previous and corresponding circulations are inspected with t-test method.The time series of positive station numbers about the temperature and precipitation are labeled as S_1 and S_2 respectively after removing long-term trend more than 9 years.Then the typical years according to the cold,warm,dry and wet patterns could be acquired by using the values of S_1＋S_2 and S_1-S_2.In detail,the larger values of S_1＋S_2 are defined as the warm and wet years,and the smaller values are defined as the cold and dry years.Meanwhile,the larger values of S_1-S_2 are represented as the warm and dry years,and the smaller values are represented as the cold and wet years.The results are as follows： The warm（cold）pattern takes on the inactive（active）blocking high over Ural Mountain and zonal（meridional） circulation prevails at middle and high latitudes.The dry（wet）type is corresponding to the weak （strong）and eastward（westward）of subtropical high in western North Pacific.The circulation difference of warm and dry pattern minus cold and wet pattern in t-test is in meridional direction,similar to the EU pattern.The circulation difference of warm and wet pattern minus cold and dry pattern in t-test is in zonal direction,similar to the anti-PNA pattern.The pentad running-mean of monthly circulation has significant differences for the warm and dry（cold and wet）type in the beginning time on 6,11,16 September and warm and wet（cold and dry）type in the beginning time on 11,16 and 21 September which indicate that the previous circulation has significant implication for climate prediction.The characteristics of cold and wet（warm and dry）type are as below：On one hand,t

关 键 词：冷暖 干湿 环流型 EU PNA 

分 类 号：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]