增温对河南省冬小麦产量的影响分析  

Influence of global warming on winter wheat yield in Henan Province

作　　者：成林[1,2] 刘荣花[1,2] 马志红[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局.河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报》2011年第4期854-859,共6页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806008);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-09-14)和中国气象局-河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室科学研究基金(AMF201004)资助

摘　　要：研究历史气候变化背景下增温对作物产量的影响是识别气候变化对农业影响的有效途径。本文利用河南省历史气候资料和冬小麦平均单产资料,通过提取气候产量、建立不同时段回归方程的方法,分析了河南省气候变暖对冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明:河南省1961～1981年冬小麦气候产量与气温距平显著相关,1987年以后产量波动随气温变化的相关性减弱。20世纪80年代中期以后河南省冬小麦全生育期气温显著升高,增温幅度为0.81℃-10a-1。相对于变暖前的1961～1981年,1991～2000年和2001～2007年增温带来的单产增加量占实际增产量的15.6%～20.7%;但显著升温后的2001～2007年相对于1991～2000年增温带来的增产量仅占实际增产量的1.0%,冬小麦单产对气温的敏感性降低。Agriculture is one of the industries that is most sensitive to global warming.Crop yield analysis is an efficient approach to evaluating the impact of climate change on agriculture.Henan Province（which is in the south region of North China Plain） is one of the most important production bases of winter wheat,a crop that is sensitive to global warming.This study used historical climate data and average winter wheat yield to determine the trends in precipitation and temperature during winter wheat growing season in Henan Province.It then utilized the extracted climatic productivity and Mann-Kendall mutation testing method to separate two dis-tinct stages of the effects of climate change on agriculture.For each of the stages,regression equations were also established among temperature,climate change and yield.Then the impact of warming climate on unit yield of winter wheat was eventually analyzed at each stage using the equations.While there was no drastic change in precipitation during the 1961～2007 winter wheat season in He-nan Province,the temperature rose continuously.In comparison with precipitation,temperature showed significant correlations with climate and unit yield of winter wheat.For the period of 1961～1981,the correlation between winter wheat yield and temperature departure was significant and positive.This correlation weakened after 1987,after which time yield fluctuation was limited.Since the mid 1980s,air temperatures during winter wheat seasons in Henan Province increased dramatically,with an average temperature increase of 0.81 ？C per decade.In comparison with 1961～1981（the pre-warming stage/period）,wheat yield increased by 173.4%～245.9% in 1991～2000 and 2001～2007,and the contribution rate of temperature rise was 15.6%～20.7%.Average tempera-tures were relative higher in wintering,re-greening,heading and flowering stages.Warming positively influenced unit yield of winter wheat,as average temperatures were lower than the suitable temperature range.In the conspicuous 2001～2007

关 键 词：冬小麦 气温 单产 气候变化 回归方程 河南省 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]