利用精化误差进行危险交会分析  

Collision Prediction Analysis Using Refined Error Data

作　　者：杨旭[1,2] 刘静[1,2] 王荣兰[1,2] 于友成[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台,北京100012 [2]中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《空间科学学报》2011年第4期520-526,共7页Chinese Journal of Space Science

摘　　要：空间碎片碰撞预警工作主要针对的是可监测的较大空间碎片,预测航天器与碎片之间的碰撞风险,并根据一定的预警判据来评估风险的大小,进而做出合理的轨道规避决策.碰撞概率是碰撞风险评估的重要依据.复合体尺寸、交会距离和误差是影响碰撞概率的三个决定性因素.当复合体尺寸与交会距离差别不大时,误差因素对碰撞概率结果起着决定性的作用.在利用整天误差计算碰撞概率的基础上,提出了利用精化误差计算碰撞概率的方法,在危险交会分析中取得了良好的效果.With the expansion of human＇s activity in the outer space, the population of the space debris has grown greatly. Several collisions and breakup events in the recent period increased the total number of space debris sharply. These debris are causing serious threat to orbital spacecraft, and efficient protection must be done to deal with the growing collision risk. Space debris collision avoidance job mainly aims at big space debris that can be monitored, and predicting the collision risk between spacecraft and space debris and then evaluating the risk through certain collision criterion. So a reasonable orbit maneuver decision can be made to perform any necessary mitigate action to avoid possible collisions. Collision probability is the primary index to evaluate collision risk. The combined object size, the minimum distance and errors are main factors affecting collision probability. When the combined object size and the minimum distances are not different significantly, error data will be the crucial factor affecting collision probability. This paper brings forward a method of using refined error data to compute collision probability on the basis of whole day errors. And this method makes improvement in analyzing possible collisions.

关 键 词：空间碎片 碰撞概率 误差处理 精化误差 

分 类 号：V528[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]