基于改进灰色预测模型的液压泵寿命预测  

Life Prediction of Hydraulic Pump Based on the Improved Grey Forecasting Model

作　　者：何庆飞[1] 陈桂明[1] 陈小虎[1] 姚春江[1] 杨庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]第二炮兵工程学院装备管理工程系,陕西西安710025

出　　处：《润滑与密封》2011年第7期27-31,35,共6页Lubrication Engineering

基　　金：总装备部预研基金项目(9140A27020309JB4701);第二炮兵工程学院科技创新基金项目(XY2010JJB38)

摘　　要：选取液压油的光谱分析数据作为液压泵的寿命特征信息,针对油液采样间隔不等间距的情况,研究非等间距灰色GM(1,1)模型。对建模数据背景值进行改造,建立改造背景值的非等间距灰色GM(1,1)模型,提高模型的预测精度。研究了油液分析阈值的制定方法,制定液压泵磨损金属元素含量和含量趋势值的阈值。运用改进背景值的非等间距灰色GM(1,1)模型对某型凿岩台车的液压泵进行寿命预测,预测精度达到95.78%。Spectroscopic analysis Aimed at the condition of different data of hydraulic oil was selected as life characteristic information sampling interval sometimes, non-equidistant grey GM （ 1,1 ） was of hydraulic pump. studied. The back- ground value of modeling data was improved. Non-equidistant grey GM（ 1,1 ）of improved background value was built. The method improves the precision of non-equidistant grey model. The formulation method of the oil analysis for threshold was researched. The concentration and concentration＇ s trend value of wear and tear tantalum were constituted. Taking gear pump of certain type drilling jumbo ＇ s hydraulic system as an example, the method was applied to build a model for predic- ting the life-span of the gear pump. The results in practical applications show that this approach is very effective and has a high accuracy of 95.78%.

关 键 词：非等间距灰色GM(1  1)模型 油液分析 液压泵 寿命预测 背景值 阈值 

分 类 号：TH165.3[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]