考虑天气变化的输电系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Transmission System Considering Weather Change

作　　者：王磊[1] 赵书强[1] 张明文[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北省保定市071003 [2]河北省电力公司,河北省石家庄市050021

出　　处：《电网技术》2011年第7期66-70,共5页Power System Technology

基　　金：十一五"国家科技支撑计划重大项目(2008BAA14B05)~~

摘　　要：电力系统可靠性评估的结果受天气变化的影响很大。常规处理天气变化的方法是根据天气情况的平均值对元件的平均故障率进行修正,得出不同天气状态下的平均故障率。但是故障率和天气情况均具有不确定性。为了考虑故障率和天气情况的不确定性对可靠性评估结果的影响,在3态天气模型可靠性评估的基础上,运用联系数处理故障率和天气情况的不确定性。根据联系数运算法则进行输电系统可靠性评估,得到具有联系数形式的可靠性指标。通过评估IEEE-RBTS输电部分的可靠性表明,提出的方法能够反映故障率和天气情况的不确定性对可靠性指标的综合影响,证明了该方法的合理性和有效性。The evaluation result of power system reliability is greatly influenced by weather changing and conventional method to deal with weather changing is to modify the average failure rates of power components according to the average value of weather conditions to obtain average failure rate under different weather situations, however there is uncertainty in failure rate and weather condition. To take the influence of uncertainty of failure rate and weather condition on reliability evaluation result into account, based on the reliability evaluation by tri-state weather model, the uncertainty of failure rate and weather condition is dealt with by connection number. According to the algorithm of connection number the reliability evaluation of transmission system is performed to obtain the reliability index with the form of connection number. The results of reliability evaluation of transmitting parts of IEEE-RBTS show that the proposed method can reflect the combined influence of failure rate and weather condition on reliability index, thus the reasonableness and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified.

关 键 词：输电系统 可靠性评估 不确定性 联系数 天气模型 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]