广东省梅毒报告发病率曲线拟合及发病趋势预测  

Curve model of syphilis incidence and its trend of development in Guangdong province(China)

作　　者：沈松英[1] 杨立刚[1] 杨斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省皮肤性病防治中心,广州510500

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2011年第3期341-343,共3页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

摘　　要：目的预测广东省梅毒流行的变化趋势,为卫生部门制定相应的防治对策提供理论依据。方法应用曲线方程拟合的方法,根据广东省1995-2009年梅毒发病率的变化特点,选用二次多项式函数、三次多项式函数和指数函数,对梅毒报告发病率变化趋势进行拟合,比较分析各方程的拟合优度及残差等指标。结果三次多项式曲线的拟合效果好于其他曲线方程,拟合的三次多项式函数为y=1.117+7.099x-1.251x2+0.068x3。通过方程预测2010、2011、2012年广东省梅毒报告发病率分别为57.202/10万、74.882/10万、96.62/10万。结论如果不加大力度控制梅毒,广东省梅毒未来几年报告发病率将上升较快,应该引起政府部门、相关防治机构以及民众的高度重视。Objective To use curve modeling to describe changes in syphilis trends and provide a rationale basis for public health prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on provincial syphilis surveillance data between 1995 and 2009,3 kinds of curve functions（quadratic,cubic and exponential） were used to fit report syphilis incidence trends.Functions were assessed by comparing the indices of fitness and residuals.Results The Cubic function was more suitable than the others.The Cubic function was y=1.117＋7.099x-1.251x2＋0.068x3.The predicted report syphilis incidence in 2010 and 2011,2012 was 57.202 per 100 thousand,74.882 per 100 thousand and 96.62 per 100 thousand,respectively.Conclusion The Cubic function is an effective model to fit the report incidence of syphilis in Guangdong province from 1995 to 2009.The syphilis epidemic will expand in this province unless active control measures are taken.

关 键 词：梅毒 报告发病率 曲线拟合 

分 类 号：R373.9[医药卫生—病原生物学] R512.91[医药卫生—基础医学]