资本账户开放、金融风险与最优外汇储备  

Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Crisis and Optimal Foreign Reserves

作　　者：杨权[1] 裴晓婧[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2011年第7期22-33,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(项目号:2010221050);教育部社科规划青年项目"东亚外汇储备库研究--以互利共赢理念探索区域合作的实现形式和中国战略"(项目号:08JC790087)~~

摘　　要：全球金融危机之后,东亚经济体外汇储备出现新的动态。这表明资本账户开放条件下金融危机风险是最优外汇储备规模决策的重要变量。在传统的面板数据回归模型的基础上,通过引入金融危机发生概率这一变量,新的最优外汇储备测算模型获得了更强的解释力。拟合结果表明大多数东亚经济体近年来甚至存在储备不足,"东亚经济体持有超额外汇储备"确实是一个伪命题。但是,这一结果只有用"极度谨慎",也就是"金融危机恐惧"才能解释。此外,中国即便考虑了金融危机恐惧,外汇储备仍显过度。The scale of foreign reserves in East Asian economies appears a new dynamic.This indicates that the risk of financial crisis is a very important variable to decide the optimal foreign reserves under the condition of capital account liberalization.A new model is created by putting the variable of the probability of financial crisis into the traditional panel data regression model.The new model has more explanatory power than the traditional one.Fitting results of the new model show that most East Asian economies were even in a situation of reserve shortage.＂East Asian economies holding excess reserves＂ is really a pseudo proposition.This result can only be explained by ＂extremely cautious＂,or ＂fear of financial crisis＂.China is an exception.Its foreign reserves remain excessive in the fitting results under the new model.

关 键 词：外汇储备 金融危机 资本账户开放 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]