住房抵押贷款提前偿付率的宏观影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Macro Factors for Mortgages Prepayment

作　　者：褚保金[1] 王刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2011年第7期82-89,共8页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：本文从宏观视角,运用多元线性回归模型和半参数模型等对我国个人住房抵押贷款组合提前偿付率的影响因素及其作用机制进行了实证研究。研究发现货币市场中长期贷款利率的提高,会增加借款人再融资成本,从而降低提前偿付率;资本市场作为借款人的收入来源之一与提前偿付率之间存在正相关关系;家庭人均净收入与提前偿付率的关系是非线性的;此外,与国外研究一致,房价和累计提前偿付额也会影响提前偿付率。From the macro-perspective,this essay conducts an empirical research for the factors influencing the risk of prepayment of the mortgages and their functions by using multiple regression model and semi-parametric model.The study found that the improvement of the medium-and long-term financing costs of the monetary market will increase the refinancing costs of the borrower,thereby reducing the prepayment rate.The capital market,as one source of income for the borrower,has positive correlation with the prepayment rate,while there is nonlinear relationship between the per capita net income and prepayment rate.In addition,consistent with foreign research,the housing price and the accumulated prepayments also affect the prepayment rate.

关 键 词：提前偿付率 半参数模型 抵押贷款 宏观因素 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]