广西冬季一次罕见大范围连续性暴雨过程成因分析  

Causes Analysis of a Uncommon Persistent Heavy Rain Occurring During Winter in Guangxi

作　　者：覃丽[1] 黄海洪[1] 温水荣 

机构地区：[1]广西区气象台,广西南宁530022 [2]广西柳州市气象局,广西柳州545001

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第16期9888-9891,9973,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：广西壮族自治区气象科研计划项目(桂气科200725)

摘　　要：[目的]研究2010年广西冬季一次罕见的大范围连续性暴雨过程的成因。[方法]利用常规观测资料、卫星云图和NCEP 1°×1°逐6 h的再分析资料,从暴雨的形成条件入手,对2010年1月广西一次罕见的大范围连续性暴雨过程的环境场进行诊断分析,探讨其形成的规律和成因。[结果]这次广西冬季持续性暴雨出现在副高异常偏强且稳定的背景下,由副高西北侧边缘云系的长久维持造成,低层罕见东南急流的辐合是导致这场罕见暴雨的根本原因;副高是影响这次冬季暴雨分布的主导系统,500 hPa湿度大值区与与暴雨区域对应很好;暴雨区低层辐合、高层辐散,低层的辐合对暴雨落区起决定作用。暴雨发生在700 hPaMPV1>0、MPV2<0的有利配置下,且MPV1与MPV2量级相当。[结论]该研究为今后做好此类极端天气的预报提供参考。[Objective] To study the causes for one large scale of consecutive rainstorm process in the winter of 2010 in Guangxi Province.[Method] The characteristics and causes of the uncommon persistent heavy rain occurring in Guangxi in January,2010 was analyzed by using synoptic observation data,NCEP 1°×1° per six hours Global Data Assimilation System reanalysis data and satellite image.[Result] The results showed that this persistent heavy rain process was associated with abnormal intensity and the stability of the western pacific subtropical high.The heavy rain was caused by the cloud system maintaining for a long time on the edge of subtropical high.The convergence of the infrequent southeast jet was the primary cause of the uncommon heavy rain.MPV10 and MPV20 at 700 hPa were the favorable conditions for the heavy rain.The magnitude of MPV1 and MPV2 was equivalent.[Conclusion] The study provided reference for the forecast of the following similar extreme weather.

关 键 词：冬季暴雨 持续性 成因 分析 广西 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]