河北省森林火灾发生频数的灰色拓扑预测  

The gray topological forecasting of the forest fire area in China

作　　者：董金秀[1] 薛冰冰[1] 顾斌[2] 王贵真[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北省林业局,河北石家庄050081 [2]保定市林业局,河北保定071051 [3]河北农业大学,河北保定071000

出　　处：《河北林果研究》2011年第2期147-149,共3页Hebei Journal of Forestry and Orchard Research

摘　　要：以河北省1994—2010年森林火灾发生次数的研究材料为依据,运用灰色拓扑预测方法探讨了森林火灾的发生规律,建立了森林火灾发生次数的灰色拓扑预测模型。结果表明:所建立的灰色拓扑预测模型十分理想,各个模型的平均精度均超过95%,所有模型总的平均精度为98.42%,达到一级精度的标准。这表明拓扑预测模型能定量分析灾害发生次数的变化规律,所得结果具有较好的可靠性,可以为森林防火工作提供一定的参考依据。因此,根据所得模型对2011—2020年河北省森林火灾发生次数进行了预测。The occurring pattern and forest fires in the forest fires established topological forecasting model number of gray was discussed in the paper based on the number of forest fires research materials of Hebei province 1994-2010 using method of topological forecasting of grey.The results showed that the topological forecasting model established gray,each model was ideal,the average precision were more than 95%,all model for the average accuracy was98.42%,achieved a level precision standard.This suggested that the topological forecasting model could quantitative analysis of the change rule number of disasters,but the results had good reliability,forest fire control work to provide certain reference.Therefore,the forest fires were forecasted according to the model of Hebei province in 2011-2020.

关 键 词：灰色模型 拓扑预测 森林火灾 次数 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]