漳河水库流域降雨序列R/S分析  

R/S Analysis of Rainfall Sequence of the Zhang River Reservoir Basin

作　　者：骆亿好 周贵树 潘刚[3] 陈崇德[3] 

机构地区：[1]江西省奉新县水务局,江西奉新330700 [2]湖北省黄梅县水利局,湖北黄冈435500 [3]湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门448156

出　　处：《广东水利电力职业技术学院学报》2011年第2期7-9,66,共4页Journal of Guangdong Polytechnic of Water Resources and Electric Engineering

摘　　要：采用R/S法对漳河水库流域降雨量序列的变化趋势进行预测,结果表明:未来一段时间内,漳河水库流域降雨量呈下降趋势;流域未来1月和7月的降雨量变化趋势的随机性成分可能很大,可能出现干旱或暴雨洪涝等自然灾害;粗放的经济发展方式导致了漳河水库流域生态环境破坏,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,进而对流域降雨量变化产生较大影响。The trend for Zhang River reservoir basin rainfall sequence is predicted using the R/S method.The results show that the rainfall in Zhang River reservoir basin will decrease in the future and the random possibility of Zhang River reservoir basin rainfall trends in next January and July may be significant.Therefore,natural disaster such as droughts,floods and rainstorms may appear possibly.Extensive mode of economic development has led to ecological damage to the environment of Zhang River reservoir basin and the surface conditions in this area have changed significantly,which has a greater impact on the trend of river basin rainfall.

关 键 词：R/S法 降雨量 变化趋势 漳河水库流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]