利用CLIMEX预测纳塔尔实蝇在中国的潜在地理分布  

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of Ceratitis rosa Karsch in China

作　　者：张哲[1] 李志红[1] 万方浩[2] 倪文龙[1] 曲伟伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院昆虫系 [2]中国农业科学院植物保护研究所植物病虫害生物学国家重点实验室,北京100193

出　　处：《生物安全学报》2011年第1期43-49,共7页Journal of biosafety

基　　金：973项目(2009CB119200);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD08A15)

摘　　要：纳塔尔实蝇Ceratitis rosa Karsch属双翅目实蝇科腊实蝇属,为害30余种经济植物,被我国列为进境植物检疫性有害生物。本研究运用CLIMEX 3.0及ArcGIS 9.3对纳塔尔实蝇在我国目前及未来的潜在地理分布进行了预测。结果显示:在目前的气候条件下,纳塔尔实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布区为18.250°N^30.250°N,其中,华南和东南地区为高度潜在地理分布区,包括四川、重庆、云南、福建、广东、广西、海南以及台湾等地。在未来的气候条件下,2020和2050年潜在地理分布区的北界分别移至31.250°N和32.250°N,且中度潜在地理分布区北移明显;2100年潜在地理分布区的北界移至33.750°N,且高度适生区北移明显。因此建议目前应加强纳塔尔实蝇检疫措施,完善监测体系,监测网点主要设在我国的南方地区,尤其应对云南、广西、广东、福建和海南等地进行长期监测;同时,应对湖南、贵州、江西、湖北、江苏、安徽等省进行定期监测,严防该虫入侵。Ceratitis rosa Karsch （Diptera： Tephritidae） can damage over 30 species host plants, and is one of the import quarantine posts by China. The current and future potential geographic distribution of C. rosa were predicted by using CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3. The results showed that the current potential geographic distribution areas were between 18.250°N - 30.250°N, the geographic distribution areas with high potential were southeastern and southern China, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and Taiwan. For the future potential geographic distribution in 2020, 2050 and 2100, it was predicted that the northern boundary of the potential geographic distribution areas moved to 31.250°N, 32.250°N and 33.750°N respectively, the medium potential geographic distribution areas moved northwards obviously in 2020 and 2050, the high potential geographic distribution areas moved northwards obviously in 2100. Therefore, in order to prevent the invasion of C. rosa, the quarantine and monitor measures should be enhanced more in China, the mainly monitoring network should be in south of China, particularly in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian and Hainan, and carry on the long-term monitoring. In view of the future potential geograph- ic distribution of C. rosa in China, we should be regular monitoring in Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Hubei, Jiangsu, Anhui.

关 键 词：纳塔尔实蝇 潜在地理分布 CLIMEX ARCGIS 

分 类 号：S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]