区域暴雨指标与作物洪涝受灾率的关系  

Relationship between Regional Rainstorm Index and Flood Disaster Ratio of Crop

作　　者：姜会飞[1] 廖树华[2] 潘学标[1] 侯双双[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100193

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第17期10432-10435,10460,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：教育部高等学校科技创新工程重大项目培育资金项目(708013);国家"十一五"科技支撑项目(2008BAK50B02;2007BAC29B05)

摘　　要：利用北京地区1985～2008年逐日降水数据资料,运用IPCC极端天气气候事件指标确定方法计算得到北京地区暴雨天气指标在10.4～38.8mm波动,暴雨气候指标为日降水量≥27.5mm。以暴雨天气指标、暴雨气候指标和国家暴雨标准计算历年的暴雨日数和暴雨量,统计分析年降雨日数、暴雨日数和年降水量和暴雨量与作物洪涝受灾率的相关关系,得出年降雨日数和暴雨日数都不能真实地反映作物洪涝受灾率,而年降水量和暴雨量与作物洪涝受灾率则具有明显的线性正相关关系。以区域暴雨气候指标统计的暴雨量与作物洪涝受灾率相关程度最高,建议以暴雨量来预测评估洪涝灾害时,采用区域暴雨气候指标。According to the daily precipitation data in Beijing acea from 1985 to 2008, rainstorm weather index （ 10.4 - 38.8 mm） and eli- mate index （ daily precipitation ≥27.5 mm） in Beijing area were obtained by using the determination method of extreme climate event index recommended by IPCC. Based on rainstorm weather index, rainstorm climate index and national rainstorm standard, the number of rainstorm days and rainfall amount in past years were calculated, and the correlation of annual number of rainy days, rainstorm days, precipitation and rainstorm amount with the flood disaster ratio of crop was analyzed, and the results showed that annual number of rainy days and rainstorm days couldn＇ t reflect flood disaster ratio of crop truly, while annual precipitation and rainstorm amount had obvious linear positive correlation with the flood disaster ratio of crop. In addition, the correlation degree between rainstorm amount calculated by regional climate index and flood dis- aster ratio of crop was the highest, so it was suggested that rainstorm amount calculated by regional rainstorm climate index could be used to predict and evaluate flood disaster.

关 键 词：暴雨 暴雨指标 暴雨日数 暴雨量 洪涝灾害 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]