有效需求不足背景下的潜在通货膨胀压力——基于货币结构分析视角  

The Potential Inflationary Pressures in the Context of Insufficient Effective Demand:Based on the Currency Structure Perspective

作　　者：吴军[1] 董志伟[2] 涂竞[3] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学,北京100029 [2]云南财经大学,昆明650221 [3]中华人民共和国商务部,北京100731

出　　处：《金融研究》2011年第7期32-42,共11页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：对外经济贸易大学"211工程"三期重点学科建设项目(立项第33036号)资助

摘　　要：长期积累的高额流动性存量、如此之高的货币信贷投放,却未引发与之相匹配的高通货膨胀。货币主义的经典公式受到"中国之谜"的挑战。本文从经济的需求层面,通过有支付能力需求、有效需求与总供给的关系分析,研究了潜在通货膨胀的流动性压力及其形成渊源,并由货币结构分析视角,在定义M2和M1分别体现有支付能力需求和有效需求的基础上,运用统计方法,采用了2000年12月～2010年11月的月度数据,证明了在广义货币M2存量偏高、潜在通货膨胀压力增强的前提下,M1增长率低于M2增长率、M1占M2比率下降,则表现出沉淀或累积的有支付能力返归,向有效需求转化,预示着通货膨胀可能会由潜在转化为现实的论断。Though long-term accumulation of the high liquidity stocks and such high credit putting in, it doesn＇t lead to significant inflation. The classic monetarist formula now is challenged by ＂Chinese Puzzle＂. On the economic needs level, this paper analyzes the sources of liquidity pressures under the potential inflation. Based on the currency structure perspective, the definition of the relationship among affordability demand, effective demand and aggregate supply, and the monthly data from December 2000 to August 2010, and under the premise of the high stock of M2 and the potential inflationary pressures increasing, the paper proves that M1 growth rate is higher than M2 growth rate. Increasing the ratio of total M1 to M2 shows accumulative affordability return to effective demand, and indicates that potential inflation may be translated into reality.

关 键 词：超额货币供给 潜在通货膨胀压力 有效需求 有支付能力需求 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F822