人民币实际有效汇率变动对就业与工资的影响——基于ARDL-ECM模型的动态分析  

The Effect of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on the Sectoral Employment and Wage:A Dynamic Study Based on ARDL-ECM Model

作　　者：明娟[1] 张建武[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233041 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2011年第7期47-54,共8页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(10CJL029);教育部人文社科青年项目(09YJC790003);自然科学基金(70673024);国家自然科学基金(70873044)项目

摘　　要：文章利用1978～2009年的样本数据,运用ARDL方法分析了人民币实际有效汇率变动对行业就业和工资的影响发现:人民币实际有效汇率变动对就业影响存在一定的行业差异,但人民币实际有效汇率变动对就业的影响在贸易部门和非贸易部门之间的差异不明显;人民币实际汇率变动对大部分行业实际工资没有显著影响,人民币汇率对行业工资影响更接近中性;人民币实际有效汇率的变动对行业工资的长期影响程度要高于对行业就业的长期影响程度。The paper uses the annual data from 1978 to 2009 and the ARDL approach to analyze the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate on the sectoral employment and wage, and finds that： first, there are some sectoral differences in the effect of the change of RMB real effective exchange rate on the employment, but there are no obvious differences in the effect of the change of RMB real effective exchange rate on the employment between trade sectors and non-trade sectors; second, the change of RMB real effective exchange rate has no significant effect on the sectoral wage, indicating that the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on the sectoral wage is neutral; third, in the long-run, the effect of the change of RMB real effective exchange rate on the sectoral wage is more significant than its effect on the sectoral employment.

关 键 词：人民币实际有效汇率 ARDL 就业 工资 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]