小麦白粉病菌空中孢子量与气象因子的关系及病害预测模型的建立  

Relationship between the Amount of Aerial Conidia of Blumeria graminis f.sp. tritici and Meteorological Factors and the Establishment of Forecasting Model

作　　者：宋晶晶[1] 曹远银[1] 李天亚[1] 李伟华[1] 张晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学植物免疫研究所,沈阳110866

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2011年第13期2652-2654,共3页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家"十一五"支撑计划项目(2006BAD08A05);国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项(3-15)

摘　　要：对小麦白粉病菌空中孢子量进行了监测,并分析了孢子量与气象因子的关系。利用SPSS统计软件对试验数据进行相关和回归分析,建立了病害预测模型。结果表明,孢子量与温度呈负相关,相关系数为-0.070 1;与降水量呈正相关,相关系数为0.319 4;与相对湿度呈负相关,相关系数为-0.438 9;与风速呈负相关,相关系数为-0.293 9。建立了病害预测模型,回归方程为y=e(4.733-30.717/x),决定系数为0.897 0,模型的拟合效果较好。The amount of aerial conidia of Blumeria graminis f.sp.tritici was monitored;and the relationship between the amount of conidia and meteorological factors was analyzed.A forecasting model was established by regression and correlation analysis.The results showed that there was negative correlation between the amounts of aerial conidia and mean daily temperature,relative humidity,and mean wind speed;while had positive correlation with mean precipitation.Their correlation coefficient were-0.070 1,-0.438 9,-0.293 9,and 0.319 4 respectively.According to the highly correlationship between disease index and cumulative number of conidia in the air,the disease prediction models were constructed.The regression equation was y=e（4.733-30.717/x）,adjusted R square was 0.897 0.

关 键 词：小麦白粉病菌 孢子量 孢子捕捉 气象因子 预测模型 

分 类 号：S435.12[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]