人力资源预测定量分析方法探讨  

Study on Quantitative Analysis Methods of Human Resource Prediction in Construction Business

作　　者：王勇[1] 张蕾[2] 常陆军[1] 程天博[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州工业大学土木建筑工程学院,河南郑州450002 [2]复旦大学经济学院,上海200437

出　　处：《郑州工业大学学报》1999年第4期68-70,共3页Journal of Zhengzhou University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：人力资源是一种特殊的经济资源，是生产过程中能动的生产要素，它对经济发展有决定性影响，人力资源要素的数量和质量的情况，则是企业兴旺发的活力和强大的推动力所在．做好人力资源预测，可更好地发掘企业人力资源的潜能，从多角度来控制企业人力资源成本，充分调动企业人力资源的积极性、主动性、创造性，从而提高企业的劳动生产率，进而达到企业的经营目标．为此，探讨了人力资源预测规划的几种定量分析方法，即采用时序模型、回归模型、经济计量模型、状态转移方程模型来分析．给出了有关公式，并对这几种方法的可信度进行了比较．结果表明。Human resources are a special kind of economic resource and an active production-factor in the process of production,which have decisive influence on the development of economy.The quality and the quantity of human resources factor are the vigor and strong impulsion of an enterprise's prosperity.Human resources prediction,which could exploit the potentiality of human resources,control the cost of human resources from several aspects,and thereby enhancing the productivity and obtaining the operational goal of an enterprise. This paper discusses several quantitative methods,provides relative formula,and compares the accuracy of these methods.The results show that the prediction accuracy of these methods is basically proportional to the cost thereof.

关 键 词：人力资源 预测 定量分析 时序模型 优化配置 

分 类 号：F240[经济管理—劳动经济] C961[经济管理—国民经济]