高铁引线的客运需求分析  

Leader of high-speed rail passenger demand analysis

作　　者：张腾[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [2]中交第二公路工程局有限公司,陕西西安710065

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2011年第3期116-122,共7页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2009J055)

摘　　要：在出行成本和出行时间上对民航和高铁进行对比分析,引申出高铁引线的基本概念。从社会经济发展水平、居民收入水平、人口数量、产业结构调整及城市化进程几个方面,对高铁引线客运需求的影响因素进行分析,提出了基于贝叶斯网络原理的旅客期望出行方式的网络模型。讨论了机场旅客在选择换乘方式和期望换乘方式中,起直接作用的影响因素以及这些因素之间的相互关系。由于具有节约时间、价格低廉、乘坐方便的优点,高铁引线是大部分旅客期望换乘使用的交通方式,从而为高铁引线的建设提供了理论支持。Conducitng the contrastive analysis to the civil aviation and the high-speed railway in the journey cost and the travel time,high-speed rail leader of basic concept was extended.The analysis of factor influence to the high-speed railway leader passenger transportation was carried out from social economic development level,residents income level,population number,and industry structure adjustment and the urbanization process three aspects.Passenger expected the trip mode the network model based on the Principles of Bayesian Networks was proposed,the influencing factor which plays the direct action as well as these factor reciprocity of the airport passenger with emphasis was discussed,in the choice transfers the way and the expectation transfers in the way.Leader of high-speed rail is the most visitors expect transfer transportation means,as its advantage of saving time,cheap and easy to take.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通需求 贝叶斯网络 高铁引线 空铁博弈 

分 类 号：U238[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U239.5