高速铁路软土路基沉降预测  

Settlement Prediction of Surcharge Preloading Soft Clay Roadbed in High-Speed Railway

作　　者：付贵海[1,2] 魏丽敏[1] 郭志广[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木建筑学院,长沙410075 [2]湖南城市学院土木工程学院,湖南益阳413000

出　　处：《湖南城市学院学报（自然科学版）》2011年第2期1-4,共4页Journal of Hunan City University:Natural Science

基　　金：铁道部科技研究开发计划重点资助项目(2009G008-B);铁道部科技研究开发计划资助项目(2010G018-E-3)

摘　　要：通过实测资料分析了高速铁路堆载预压软土路基沉降规律,其沉降发展过程可分为填筑阶段—恒载阶段—堆载预压阶段—卸载阶段,沉降曲线与S形成长曲线类似.利用最小二乘法,以组合模型的误差平方和最小为目标函数来确定最优加权系数,建立了加权组合预测模型.采用Origin软件分别拟合Gompertz曲线和Logistic曲线,基于组合模型思想求得加权系数,进而求得组合模型预测值.研究结果表明,加权组合模型能吸收不同单一预测模型的优点,其预测精度比单一模型更高.The settlement law of surcharge preloading soft clay roadbed in high-speed railway was analyzed through observed data,its settlement developing experiences filling stage-dead load stage surcharge preloading stage-unloading stage,its settlement curve has some likeness with S-shaped growth curve.Using the least square method and the target function of the least square sum of the error,the optimum weighted coefficient is gained,the weight combination forecasting model is established.Gompertz curve and Logistic curve are fitted separately by using Origin software,and based on combination forecasting model,the weighted coefficient can be gained,and further it gets the predictive value of combination forecasting model.The calculation result shows that weight combination forecasting model can uptake advantages of different models,so forecasting precision of combination forecasting model is better than forecasting precision of single model.

关 键 词：高速铁路 软土路基 组合模型 沉降 预测 

分 类 号：TU433[建筑科学—岩土工程]