塔里木河流域水资源配置博弈分析  

Game Analysis on Redistribution of Water Resources in the Tarim River Basin

作　　者：李小燕[1,2] 张捷斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2011年第4期602-608,共7页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：联合国开发计划署(UNDP)农村水项目"干旱;半干旱地区水资源管理与生态恢复示范区建设"

摘　　要：塔里木河是我国乃至世界最大的内陆河,随着流域人口的急剧膨胀以及人工绿洲面积的不断扩大,过度开发利用流域水资源,造成一系列水环境问题,水资源供需矛盾激化。塔里木河流域水资源短缺问题严重制约着流域社会经济的发展,而水资源矛盾冲突更加剧了水资源危机。日益严重的水资源问题,从根本上来说是流域各利益主体从个体理性的角度博弈的结果。通过建立博弈模型,透视流域现状初始水权不完善阶段下水资源配置过程中的矛盾冲突;建立流域用水激励与约束机制,并针对塔里木河流域现状用水制度的缺陷,从行政、法律、经济、技术等方面提出激励约束机制得以顺利实施的保障措施。以引导流域各地区用水由非合作博弈转向合作博弈,缓解个体理性与集体理性的矛盾冲突,对流域水资源可持续开发利用及其管理具有重大意义。Tarim River is one of the longest inland rivers in China and even in the world.The mainstream of the Tarim River was fed by its all nine headstreams in history.However,the headstreams were decreased to 4 in recent 50 years with the rapid population growth and artificial oasis enlargement,and the discharge of the mainstream of the Tarim River was also reduced sharply and continuously.The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has become more serious,and a series of water environment problems occurred in the Tarim River Basin.These problems restricted seriously the social and economic development in the Tarim River Basin,and water crisis was exacerbated by water supply-demand contradiction.Fundamentally,the increasing water problems in the drainage basin are the game results of various stakeholders considering from their own interests.In this paper,a game model was developed and used to find out and analyze the contradiction in redistributing water resources under the imperfect initial water rights,the incentive and regulating mechanisms were developed for water consumption,and some safeguard measures were put forward from the administrative,legal,economic and technological aspects so as to ensure the successful implementation of the mechanisms.The purpose of developing the mechanisms is to shift the redistribution of water resources from the non-cooperative game to cooperative game,alleviate the conflicts between the individual interests sand collective interests,which are very important for sustainable development,utilization and management of water resources in the Tarim River Basin.

关 键 词：水资源配置 博弈论 绿洲面积 可持续利用 塔里木河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]