基于模糊风险评价的EPC项目投标决策研究  

Study on Decision-making of Bidding for EPC Project Based on Fuzzy Risk Evaluation

作　　者：陈跃[1] 杨宝臣[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第4期72-77,共6页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAB08B01);天津大学自主创新基金资助项目

摘　　要：EPC项目采用固定总价合同,使得总承包商承担了工程绝大部分风险,投标前的风险分析与风险计价对总承包企业意义重大。本文构建了EPC项目投标立项风险评价指标体系;综合运用德尔菲法、模糊层次分析、风险矩阵分析、模糊综合评价模型,构建了定性与定量相集成的EPC项目风险评价方法;依照最低合理可行原则,设计了基于风险评价的EPC项目投标决策流程。案例研究表明所提方法的高效与实用,可以从风险的角度为总承包企业的投标报价与履约管理提供决策支持。In EPC project,contract price is fixed,which causes the general contractor to take most of the project risk,thus risk analysis and risk pricing before bidding is of vital importance to him.This paper establishes a bidding risk evaluation index system for EPC project.An integrated risk evaluation method for EPC project from qualitative to quantitative is built by comprehensive application of Delphi Method,Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process（FAHP）,Risk Matrix Method,and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model.Then,a bidding decision-making process for EPC project based on risk evaluation is designed according to the ALARP principle.Finally,a case study is given,which shows the method introduced in this paper is efficient and practical,which can provide a decision support service for EPC general contractors＇ project bidding and management from the angle of risk analysis.

关 键 词：EPC 总承包商 风险评价 模糊综合评价 投标报价 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]