基于Nested-Logit模型的国际集装箱运输链选择行为研究  

Study on International Container Transportation Chain Choice Behavior Based on Nested-Logit Model

作　　者：张戎[1] 郭玉静[1] 闫哲彬[1] 艾彩娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《铁道学报》2011年第7期8-13,共6页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：上海市科委科研计划项目(08251203500)

摘　　要：以内陆腹地至沿海港口间的国际集装箱公路、铁路运输链为研究对象,在市场调查的基础上,选取港口航线密度、通关便利度、运输时间、运输费用、可靠性作为托运人运输链效用函数的变量,建立Nested-Logit模型。运用义乌市国际集装箱托运人的RP/SP调查数据,标定模型参数,分析托运人的运输链选择偏好,估算各条运输链选择概率的运输时间、运输费用、可靠性的弹性及其边际替代率,并据此提出发展海铁联运的对策建议。研究表明,开通义乌与港口之间的集装箱五定班列并辅以优惠的价格政策,可大幅提升铁路在国际集装箱运输链中的竞争力。This paper takes both road and rail chains in international container transportation between port and hinterland as the research object.On the basis of market surveys,we set the Nested-Logit model by selecting the sea lines density,customer clearance procedure convenience,transportation time,transportation cost and reliability as the variables of the transportation chain utility function.Using RP/SP survey data of international container shippers in Yiwu,we calibrated the parameters of the Nested-Logit model to analyze the transportation chain choice preference of consigners,estimated the transportation time elasticity,transportation cost elasticity and reliability elasticity of the choice probability and calculated the marginal rates of substitution.Accordingly,we put forward the measures for development of sea-rail intermodal transportation.The results show that opening five scheduled trains between Yiwu and ports and supplementing with preferential price policies can greatly enhance the competitiveness of railways in international container transport chains.

关 键 词：海铁联运 运输链 选择偏好 Nested-Logit模型 

分 类 号：U294[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]