基于线性加权和法的大坝风险后果综合评价模型  

The Comprehensive Hazard Assessment Model for the Consequences Caused by the Dam Failure Based on the Linear Weighted Method

作　　者：孙玮玮[1] 李雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院大坝安全与管理研究所,南京210029

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2011年第7期88-90,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金："十一五国家科技支撑计划项目"震损水库安全评估与应急处置技术研究(2009BAK56B04)

摘　　要：大坝风险后果综合评价涉及众多评价因子,各因子间存在大量不确定性,将线性加权和法应用于大坝风险后果的综合评价,以江西5座水库为例,应用层次分析法计算水库溃坝生命损失、经济损失、环境影响及社会影响等因子的权重,通过后果严重系数确定大坝风险等级并对其进行排序。结果表明,若发生溃坝事件,5座水库大坝后果均十分严重,属特别重大事故,评价结果客观合理。研究表明,线性加权和法能够较客观地反映大坝风险程度,具有概念清晰、过程直观、计算简单等特点,为大坝风险后果综合评价提供一条新途径。This paper aims at introducing a renovated hazard assessment model for the consequences caused by the dam failure based on the linear weighted method.Since such dam failure hazard assessment involves a lot of correlative factors characteristics of uncertainties,it is necessary to avoid subjective factors as much as possible.In this way,linear weighted method is expected to make the complex uncertainty factors visualized.The method requires a thorough analysis and evaluation of the objects,serious coefficient of consequences which makes the evaluation results precise and persuasive.Moreover,the AHP method tends to take into account all the elements to weigh all the evaluation results concerned.As a case study,this paper tries the model to evaluate the consequences of dam hazard assessment of five reservoirs in Jiangxi Province.Dam hazard rating and consequence rating have actually been judged and identified by using the correlation analysis method.The results of our analysis show that the aftermath or consequences of the failure of the above five reservoirs are all serious which belong to the special events of the dam-breaks.Thus the trial of the model shows that linear weighted method tends to reflect the dam hazard level more objectively with its application procedures being simple and intuitive for operation.Therefore,it can be thought of as a promising method with great potential for future development.

关 键 词：水利水电工程 大坝风险后果 综合评价 线性加权和法 层次分析法 模型 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]