贸易顺差、资本流入与中国外汇储备规模增长  

Trade Surplus,Capital Inflows and the Foreign Exchange Reserves

作　　者：陈安[1] 杨振宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2011年第4期76-83,127,共8页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：本文通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,对影响我国外汇储备规模快速增长的诸因素进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,(1)我国外汇储备规模与年出口额、外国证券投资、外商直接投资、外债还本付息额具有长期的稳定关系。(2)年出口规模与外汇储备规模之间具有单向因果关系,是造成外汇储备快速增长的主要原因。(3)外商直接投资、外国证券投资和外汇储备规模具有正向相关关系,其影响强度较弱;而外债还本付息额与外汇储备呈负向相关关系。(4)1986年～2009年间,贸易顺差对外汇储备规模增长的贡献度约为68%,而资本流入约为32%。本文基于实证分析结果认为,采取贸易项目收支平衡战略以减少外汇储备过度增长是最佳的选择。This paper investigates the factors which influence the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves in China with Granger test and Co-integrated test.The empirical study indicates:(1)There exists a long stabilized relation among foreign exchange reserves,export volume,import volume,foreign direct investment,foreign securities investment and the external direct investment;(2)Export volume is the most important factor which causes the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves;(3) Foreign direct investment and foreign securities investment have insignificant positive correlations with foreign exchange reserves,external direct investment and interest on foreign debt have the least but negative relations with foreign exchange reserves;(4)The contribution of current account to foreign exchange reserves through 1986-2009 is about 68%,and that of capital account is about 32%.We then argue that it is the key point to put the equilibrium trade policy into practice.

关 键 词：外汇储备 贸易顺差 外商直接投资 外国证券投资 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]