基于故障树与模糊理论的埋地管道风险评价  

Risk assessment of the buried pipeline based on the fault tree and fuzzy theory

作　　者：陈杨[1] 王为民[1] 陈伟聪[1] 乔伟彪[1] 胡宗柳[1] 贺雷 

机构地区：[1]辽宁石油化工大学,辽宁抚顺113001 [2]常州港华燃气有限公司,江苏常州213000

出　　处：《油气储运》2011年第7期481-485,473,共5页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：以常州港华燃气公司的工程数据为基础,建立了城市燃气埋地管道失效故障树,确定引起埋地管道失效的主要因素为第三方破坏、腐蚀、管道本质缺陷、管理维护不当,得出了导致埋地管道失效的48种基本事件。将故障树法与模糊综合评判法相结合,建立了埋地管道风险评价模型。详细说明了风险评价步骤,用影响埋地管道失效的主要因素作为埋地管道模糊综合评价模型的评价因素集,建立故障树底层各评价指标的因素等级隶属度,以及单因素评判矩阵和单因素权重集,进而得到单因素评判集和整体评价结果。实例证明,该模型对埋地管道的风险评价结果与实际情况相符,可为城市燃气公司的科学管理提供依据。Based on the accumulated engineering data of Changzhou Gas Company,the fault tree of failure for the buried pipeline is established.The major factors of failure for the buried pipeline are determined as the third-party damage,corrosion,pipeline defects,management and improper maintenance.Forty-eight elementary events led to failure of the pipeline are obtained.Integrating the fault tree method into the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method,the risk assessment model for the buried pipeline is established.The risk assessment steps are as follows:(1) the major factors to impact the failure of the buried pipeline are used as the factor set of fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for buried pipeline;(2) the grade membership of factors for every bottom evaluation index of fault tree,judgement matrix and weight set of single factor are established,and(3) to achieve the judement set of single factor and entire evaluation result are made.A case shows that the risk assessment of buried pipeline results obtained by this model is in line with the actual event.It is considered that this model can provide a base in scientif ic management to other urban gas companies.

关 键 词：埋地管道 城市燃气 故障树 模糊综合评价法 风险评价 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]