北京市H区日平均气温与呼吸系统疾病死亡的病例交叉研究  

Association between Daily Mean Air Temperature and Mortality of Respiratory Diseases in Beijing,China:a Case-Crossover Study

作　　者：陶辉[1] 童建勇[1] 沈艳辉[2] 潘小川[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学医学部公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学系,北京100191 [2]北京市海淀区疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2011年第7期569-572,F0003,共5页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(20637026)

摘　　要：目的探讨北京市日平均气温对呼吸系统疾病死亡(J00-J99)的影响。方法收集2004年1月1日至2008年12月31日北京市H区人群呼吸系统疾病死亡数据和城八区气象及大气污染物数据,采用单向回顾的病例交叉设计,用温度分层(<15℃,15～25℃,>25℃)的方法进行数据分析。结果在控制大气污染物SO2、NO2、PM10及其他气象因素(相对湿度、气压、风速)的条件下,在15～25℃区间和大于25℃时,日平均气温每升高1℃,呼吸系统疾病死亡发生的风险分别增加7.3%(OR=1.073,95%CI:1.002～1.149)和25.7%(OR=1.257,95%CI:1.115～1.416),关联有统计学意义;<15℃时,日平均气温与呼吸系统疾病死亡数关联无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论在本研究地区,日平均气温>15℃时,日平均气温升高可能是呼吸系统死亡增加的危险因素,且在>25℃时气温升高对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响更加明显。Objective To explore the association between daily mean temperature and respiratory disease death （ICD10： J00-J99） in Beijing. Methods Data of daily death for the respiratory diseases （ICD： J00 -J99） in Haidian District in Beijing in Jan.l, 2004- Dec. 31, 2008 were collected from the local Center of Disease Control. The corresponding meteorological and air pollution data were collected from National Meteorological Information Center （CMA） of China and Beijing Environmental Monitoring Center. The case-crossover design and Logistic regression model were used for the data analysis. The cases were stratified by temperature and we considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution and other meteorological factors. Results After adjusting the influence of air pollutants （e.g. SO2, NO2, PM10） and other meteorological factors （relative humidity, wind speed and atmospheric pressure）, for 1℃ increase in the daily mean air temperature, the corresponding increase of daily death for the respiratory diseases was 7.3% （OR=1.073, 95%CI： 1.002-1.149） within the range （15-25℃） and 25.7% （OR =1.257, 95%CI：1.115-1.416） over 25 ℃ respectively. No significant associations were observed statistically within the temperature below 15 ℃. Conclusion The increase of daily mean air temperature may be a risk factor for the daily respiratory disease death when the temperature is higher than 15 ℃, and the adverse effect of the temperature increase is greater over 25 ℃ than the range 15-25 ℃.

关 键 词：气象因素 日平均气温 呼吸系统疾病死亡 病例交叉研究 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]