货币供应量的实时监测——基于季节调整方法  

Real-time Monitoring for Money Supply:Based on Seasonal adjustment Approach

作　　者：陈雄强[1] 张晓峒[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院数量经济研究所,300071

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2011年第7期26-34,共9页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"经济序列季节调整的理论与应用研究"资助;编号:10BTJ010;国家统计局重大科研项目"中国宏观经济序列季节调整与软件研发"的支持

摘　　要：货币供应量是我国货币政策的中介目标,对其进行实时监测具有重要的经济意义。同比和环比是分析经济指标变动的两种方法。本文结合春节效应和交易日效应,运用X-13ARIMA-SEATS程序对货币供应量序列(M0、M1和M2)进行季节调整,并据此计算环比数据。与同比数据相比,环比数据可以更及时地发现经济指标的转折点,因此更适宜于对货币供应量进行实时监测。预测结果表明,未来一年我国货币供应量还将保持增长态势,M2的平均增速最快,M1次之,M0的平均增速最慢。Money supply is the intermediate target of monetary policy in China.Real-time monitoring for money supply is important.Month-to-month change and year-to-year change are two main methods for economic indicator analysis.Taking into account moving holiday effect and trading day effect,different levels of money supply series（M0,M1 and M2） were seasonally adjusted separately with X-13ARIMA-SEATS.On the basis of seasonal adjustment series,month-to-month percent change is obtained,which is more appropriate for real-time monitoring than year-to-year change.The predicting outcomes show that money supply will maintain rapid growth.On average,M2 is the fastest growing series of the three series,while M0 is the slowest series.

关 键 词：货币供应量 季节调整 环比 同比 移动假日 

分 类 号：F820.4[经济管理—财政学]