兰彻斯特方程损耗系数估算方法研究  

Research on Lanchester Attrition-rates Coefficient Estimation

作　　者：张宪[1] 张国春[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防大学信息作战与指挥训练教研部,北京100091

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2011年第8期1583-1586,共4页Journal of System Simulation

摘　　要：建立基于兰彻斯特方程的聚合级实体损耗模型的关键在于损耗系数的确定。目前对于兰彻斯特方程损耗系数估算的研究主要基于武器装备的火力指数,缺乏对地形、通视性以及目标优先级的考虑。故我们给出基于捕捉概率和目标优先级的扩展兰彻斯特方程,重点研究利用高分辨率模型输出结果对兰彻斯特方程损耗系数进行估算的方法,提出了扩展兰彻斯特方程中目标优先级的实现思想,最后介绍了极大似然估计中方差和置信区间的处理技术。利用本估算方法可以生成多兵种交战损耗矩阵,用来计算交战损耗。The key of aggregated force attrition modeling based on Lanchester equation is the calibration of attrition-rates coefficient.At present the research on Lanchester attrition-rates coefficient estimation is mainly based on weapon＇s firepower index,with little consideration about terrain,the probability of LOS and target priority.So the Extended Lanchester Equation was proposed considering the factors of target acquisition probability and target priority,the MLE method was focused on to acquire attrition-rates coefficient,and then the idea was illuminated on how to get the target priority,at last,the technique was explained to deal with Variance and Confidence Interval.With the use of this method,the mixed forces attrition-rates coefficient matrices could be generated and the warfare attrition was computed.

关 键 词：扩展兰彻斯特方程 损耗系数 极大似然估计 目标优先级 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]