层次分析法在地层因素诱发井控风险分析中的应用  

The Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in Well Control Risk Induced by Formation Factor Analysis

作　　者：金业权[1] 喻海霞[2] 孙泽秋[1] 刘刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)石油工程学院,山东青岛266555 [2]中石化胜利石油管理局钻井职工培训中心,山东东营257064

出　　处：《石油天然气学报》2011年第8期107-110,2,共4页Journal of Oil and Gas Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAB37B02);中国石油大学(华东)自主创新项目(10CX04035A)完井井控安全评估体系研究项目资助

摘　　要：引发井控风险的诱因很多,做好井控诱因影响程度大小的评估工作是有效降低井控事故发生率、减少事故风险损失的基础工作。层次分析法是对一些较为复杂、较为模糊的问题作出有效决策的方法。通过文献调研,建立了三级地层诱因评价指标体系,并利用层次分析法的基本原理建立了分析地层因素诱发井控风险因素权重的模型,得出了各诱因权重值,为正确识别和防范因地层因素诱发井控风险提供可借鉴的理论依据,并可为现场有效防范井控风险提供参考。There were many factors inducing the well control risk,good assessment on the degree of influence on well control factors was the basic work of reducing the well control accident rate and its damages.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP) was an effective decision-making method for solving some more complicated and ambiguous problems.Based on the review of related literatures,it establishes a three-level evaluation index system,the basic principles of AHP is used to build a weight model for analyzing the formation factors inducing the well control risk and figuring out the weight value of each factor.It provides a theoretical basis for correct identification and prevention of formation factor inducing the well control risk and a reference for preventing effectively the well control risk in oilfields.

关 键 词：井控 风险 风险评价 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TE28[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]