Archimedean Copulas在降水变异概率分布特征研究中的应用——以新疆福海县为例  

Application of Archimedean Copulas in Research on Probability Distribution Characteristics of Precipitation Variation——Taking Fuhai County in Xinjiang as an Example

作　　者：李剑锋[1,2] 张强[1,2] 陈晓宏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275

出　　处：《灾害学》2011年第3期1-7,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：新疆自治区科技攻关项目(200931105);中山大学理工科青年教师重点培育计划项目(2009-37000-1132381);中山大学"百人计划"人才引进项目(37000-3171315);南京地理与湖泊研究所前沿领域创新研究项目(CXNIGLAS200814;08SL141001-28005)

摘　　要：探究二维情况下变异不同步,也就是一个变量发生变异,而另一个变量不发生变异的情况,对Copula联合分布的影响。在气温变化的环境下,降水过程发生了显著变异,而年降水量和年总降水天数的联合分布对长期旱涝情况有重要意义。以Copula函数为基础,计算新疆福海站年降水量和年总降水天数联合分布,用传统变异分析方法进行变异分析。针对年降水量发生变异,而年总降水天数没有发生变异的情况,探讨其Copula联合分布的影响。计算结果表明,年降水变异对年降水量和年总降水天数Kendall相关系数τ影响不大,但对Copula种类的选择影响较大。The influences of two-dimensional non-synchronous variation,that a variable changes but the other does not change simultaneously,on joint distribution of Copula are discussed.In the environment of temperature changes,significant variability occurs in the precipitation process,and joint distribution of annual precipitation and annual total precipitation is important to the long-term drought conditions.Based on Copula function,joint distribution of annual precipitation and annual total precipitation of Fuhai County station in Xinjiang is calculated,and variation analysis is done by traditional variation analysis method.In the case that precipitation significantly changed but precipitation days didn’t,the influence of precipitation changes on copula joint distribution is discussed.Research results indicate that Kendal’s τ does not change much on the effect of precipitation changes,but the best fitting copula is affected much.

关 键 词：COPULA 变异分析 年降水量 年降水天数 新疆福海县 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]