陕西省精细化地质灾害气象预报预警研究  

Meticulous Meteorological Forecasting and Alarming for Geological Hazard in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：张雅斌[1] 杜继稳[2] 蔡蕊 李明[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气象台,陕西西安710014 [2]陕西省气象局,陕西西安710014 [3]增城市气象局,广东广州511300

出　　处：《灾害学》2011年第3期28-34,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：陕西省气象局项目带动计划01批重点项目"天气预报业务平台建设"(2008ZD14)

摘　　要：在黄土高原和秦巴山区地质灾害与降水相关特征分析基础上,介绍了陕西省气象台精细化地质灾害气象预报预警模型与业务系统。利用新一代多普勒天气雷达和自动气象站加密资料实现了综合雨量的精细估计,结合GIS地形地貌信息和历史灾害风险分析确定出降水影响系数后,通过计算指标量与灾害临界阈值判断实现了陕西省1915个乡镇地质灾害的逐日自动预报预警。Based on analysis on correlation relationship between geological hazard and precipitation in Loess Plateau and Qin-Ba mountain area in Shaanxi Province,meteorological model and realization system for geological hazard forecasting and alarming are proposed.Precise estimates on comprehensive precipitation are realized by encrypted data of newly generated Doppler weather radar and automated observation stations.Combining with GIS topography information and risk analysis on historical disasters,impact factors of precipitation are determined.Automatic daily forecasting and alarming for geological hazard of 1915 towns in Shaanxi Province are realized by calculating target volume and judgment on disaster critical threshold.

关 键 词：地质灾害 雨量估计 降水影响系数 气象 预报预警 陕西 

分 类 号：P642.2[天文地球—工程地质学] P457[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]