多普勒雷达资料在南京地区一次暴雨临近预报中的应用  

Application of Doppler Radar Data in Rainstorm Nowcasting of Nanjing

作　　者：李艳芳[1] 黄兴友[1] 潘佳文[1,2] 冷亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏南京210044 [2]福建省厦门市气象局,福建厦门361000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第19期11763-11766,11786,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用降水和非降水回波反射率三维结构特征对雷达数据进行质量控制,以去除非降水回波的影响;并利用扩展的TREC方法外推回波运动场,采用适合的Z-I关系得到小时降水量,以地面雨量计测值作为标准对预报效果进行评估。实例分析表明,质量控制后的雷达资料精度有所提高,采用多种调整方法和插值手段可获得高精度的雷达回波移动风场;外推小时降水量与实况有较好的相关性,相关系数达0.6737,但因未考虑雷达回波生消发展的影响,降水精度逐渐降低。The three dimensional structure features of Doppler radar reflectivity could be used for quality controlling to weaken the effect of non-precipitation echoes. On this basis, extending TREC（ Tracking Radar Echo by Correlations） technique is adopted to extrapolate the echo motion field and then yield the extrapolative hourly precipitations with the corresponding Z-I relationship. The evaluation of the extrapolated hourly precipitations based on the gauge rain data shows that the hourly precipitation extrapolated using the TREC vectors after quality control is closer to the gauge rain data, the correlation coefficient reaches O. 673 7. The precision of wind vector fields was improved after adopting ad- justing measures and interpolation methods. Another reason is that the growth and decay of radar echoes are not considered when advecting the reflectivity.

关 键 词：临近预报 多普勒雷达 质量控制 扩展的TREC方法 降水 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]