中美贸易不平衡的均衡、错位及其矫正的实证研究  

Empirical Research on Equilibrium, Misalignment and Correction of Imbalanced China-US Trade

作　　者：黄万阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,经济计量分析与预测研究中心,116025

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2011年第8期58-67,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“人民币汇率与中美贸易不平衡问题实证研究”(11BJY014);辽宁省教育厅项目“辽宁出口可持续增长研究-基于多维度模型的计量分析”(WJ2010028)的资助

摘　　要：利用1995-2010年1季度数据,研究中美贸易不平衡的均衡水平、错位程度及其矫正机制。研究发现:长期看,美国经济增长1%、中国经济增长1%、人民币对美元实际汇率贬值1%,导致中国对美贸易顺差分别增加4.46%、0.81%、0.93%;2005年我国的汇率制度改革导致我国对美贸易顺差小幅度增加。中美贸易收支错位的自我修正机制存在,自我修正功能较强。短期看,人民币对美元实际汇率升值、我国货币供给减少、美国政府支出增加、人民币对美元名义汇率贬值,导致我国对美贸易顺差增加。中美贸易不平衡的错位是经常性的,2009-2010年1季度,中美贸易不平衡低于均衡水平。政策含义是:积极转变我国的经济增长方式;长期坚持人民币对美元适度升值;策略性地应对来自美国的人民币升值压力。Using 1995：1-2010：1 quarterly data, this paper researches on the equilibrium, misalignment and correction of imbalanced China-US trade. The study shows that, in the long run, American economic growth by 1%, Chinese economic growth by 1% and the depreciation of RMB/US real exchange rate by 1% cause China-US trade surplus increase by 4.46%, 0.81%, 0.93% respectively; reform of RMB＇ s exchange rate regime in 2005 causes China-US trade surplus increase moderately. There is an error correction organism of misalignment of imbalanced China-US trade, and its function is stronger. In the short run, the appreciation of RMB/US dollar real exchange rate, decrease of Chinese money supply, increase of American government expenditure cause China-US trade surplus in- crease. Misalignment of imbalanced China-US trade is regular. In 2009：1-2010：1, the imbalanced China-US trade is lower than the equilibrium level of imbalanced China-US trade. The implications in policy are： actively reforming the manner of Chinese economic growth; long persisting on the appreciation of RMB/US dollar real exchange rate moderately; Strategically responding to the pressure on the appreciation of RMB/US dollar real exchange rate from America.

关 键 词：中美贸易不平衡 汇率 均衡 错位 矫正 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]