广东省耐多药肺结核预警模型的研究  

Study on the early warning model of multidrug resistant tuberculosis in Guangdong province

作　　者：周琳[1] 钟球[1] 刘永奇[2] 蒋莉[1] 吴惠忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省结核病防治研究所,广州510630 [2]华南理工大学自动化科学与工程学院,广州510640

出　　处：《中国防痨杂志》2011年第7期434-437,共4页Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis

基　　金："十一五"国家重大科技专项(2008ZX10003-007);广东省科技计划项目(2009B030801265);广东省医学科研基金(C2009017)

摘　　要：目的探索建立适合广东特点的耐多药结核病的预警模型,以期为全省乃至全国耐药、耐多药结核病疫情的控制,国家10年规划的顺利实施提供科学、可靠的理论依据。方法通过利用控制论的理论知识,用加权平均方法对耐多药结核病死亡率、发现率、治愈率等参数进行估计。建立微分方程。结果使用现实的参数,模拟和衍生基本再生数(R0)的阈值,构建耐多药肺结核病传播动力学模型。结论耐多药预警模型的构建及指标校正有赖于完善的耐药性监测资料,作为耐多药肺结核预警模型的初探,将为耐多药结核病防治工作的推进抛砖引玉。Objective To explore the early warning model of multidrug resistant tuberculosis suit for Guangdong features providing Guangdong province even nationwide with scientific and reliable theory foundation for the MDR-TB control and the implementation of national 10 years plan.Methods Establish the differential equation based on cybernetic theory and the assessment of MDR-TB mortality,detection rate and cure rate though weighted mean method.Results Build the MDR-TB transmission dynamical model with the threshold value of stimulated or derived R0 from real parameter.Conclusion The establishing of warning model of MDR-TB and the indicator adjusting need sophisticated drug resistant monitoring data.As a trying step to MDR-TB warning model,this research did find some clues for the improvement of national MDR-TB control.

关 键 词：结核 肺/预防和控制 结核 抗多种药物性/预防和控制 广东省 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]