极端天气作用下的区域粮食产量波动--以石家庄冬小麦为例  

Fluctuation of regional crop yields with extreme weather events:Winter wheat in Shijiazhuang

作　　者：刘家宏[1,2] 郭迎新[2] 秦大庸[1,2] 葛怀凤[2] 陈根发[2] 

机构地区：[1]流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]水资源研究所,中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第6期777-782,共6页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家“九七三”重点基础研究项目(2006CB403401);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(51021006);国家自然科学重点基金项目(40830637)

摘　　要：为分析在极端天气事件作用下影响粮食产量波动的致灾因子并分析该因子的影响作用,该文以石家庄地区冬小麦为例,利用统计学方法如回归分析、因子分析和主成分回归构建区域气象产量模型,把单位面积粮食产量划分为趋势单产变化和气象单产波动2个部分。经石家庄实例验证,该方法有效消除了增产趋势的影响,能更准确地反映气象灾害对单产波动的影响。结果表明:物质投入、科技进步、生产管理等是影响趋势单产变化的主要因素;而石家庄冬小麦单产波动的主要致灾因子有:3月最低温度、6月平均温度和10月及11月的降水量。3月最低气温较多年平均值上升或下降1～2℃,冬小麦产量会上下波动50kg/hm2;11月份降水量较多年平均值增加或减少15～20mm,产量会减少或增加40kg/hm2。因此"倒春寒"、极端降雪等极端天气事件是导致石家庄冬小麦产量减产的最主要气象因素。This paper identifies hazard factors related to crop yields and analyzes the influence of these factors for extreme weather events.A regional weather-yield model using regression analysis,factor analysis and principal component regression is applied to winter wheat in the city of Shijiazhuang.The yield per unit area is divided into trends and fluctuations due to weather.The data for Shijiazhuang shows that the impact of trends is effectively eliminated.The results show that material input,scientific and technological progress,and production management are the main factors affecting yield trend changes.The results also show that the lowest temperature in March,the average temperature in June,and the precipitation in October and November are the main hazards leading to yield fluctuations of winter wheat in Shijiazhuang.If the lowest temperature is higher（lower） 1~2 ℃ than the annual average,the yield may increase（reduce） by 50 kg/hm2.If precipitation in October is 15~20 mm greater（less）,the yield may be reduced（increased） by 40 kg/hm2.Thus,the worst hazards leading to yield reduction are late spring cold events and extreme snowfall.

关 键 词：气象产量模型 极端天气 因子分析 石家庄 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]