最优货币区理论视角下外贸失衡和汇率失衡的地区异质性研究  

On the Regional Heterogeneity of Trade Imbalance and Disequilibrium in Exchange Rate from the Perspective of Optimum Currency Area Theory

作　　者：卢万青[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学,广东广州510006

出　　处：《上海金融》2011年第7期5-11,共7页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：把我国的外贸失衡和汇率失衡看作是全国性失衡是不恰当的,基于最优货币区理论研究视角,本文认为我国外贸失衡主要是指东部地区的外贸失衡,我国汇率被低估主要是指东部地区的汇率被低估,而中西部地区并不存在外贸失衡和汇率被低估的现象。因此,要调节我国汇率和外贸的区域性失衡,依靠人民币升值虽然会减少东部的汇率和贸易失衡,但会增加中部和西部的汇率和外贸失衡,而实施地区差异化的外贸政策、产业政策和财政税收政策是解决我国汇率和外贸的区域性失衡的可行办法。It＇s inappropriate to treat trade imbalance and disequilibrium in exchange rate as national imbalance. From the perspective of optimum currency area theory, the article argues that trade imbalance refers to the imbalance in eastern areas, and that undervalued exchange rate mainly exists in eastern areas; there is no trade imbalance and disequilibrium in exchange rate in middle and western areas. As a result, to adjust the regional imbalance of trade and exchange rate through RMB appreciation may alleviate the imbalance in eastern areas, but may aggravate the imbalance in middle and western areas. To solve the imbalance of exchange rate and trade, it＇s feasible to implement regionally heterogeneous foreign trade policy, industrial policy, and fiscal and taxation policy.

关 键 词：汇率失衡 外贸失衡 最优货币区 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]