节能高效、减排低碳与责任和速工业化及经济腾飞  

Efficient energy, high effect, reduce emission, low carbon and responsibility with fast industrialization and soar of economy

作　　者：滕吉文[1] 阮小敏[1] 张永谦[1] 闫雅芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2011年第3期761-793,共33页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：华北克拉通破环专项项目(90914012)资助

摘　　要：哥本哈根国际会议在纷争中结束,未能达成多少共识,但却给发展中国家在发展的进程中留下了不少失望和遗憾.然而却使得发展中国家为坚持《京都协议书》和再次认定发达国家必须履行责任和义务确定了原则.在全球排放空间、排放CO_2量的分配、排放效应和时限与有区别的配置以及必须落在实处奠定了基础.为此人们必须正确理解人类活动与气候变化的影响度,即不能单调地"夸大",而又不能视而不见CO_2排放量与全球变暖的正、负面效应.因为气候模型影响气候变化的要素具有多元素和不确定性,而且在整个人类的历史进程中温度变化是不均匀的,各向异性的和非线性的.同时必须深刻地认识到:全球变暖带来的不仅仅是灾难,更不是世界的末日,而是人类进步和文明进程的表征,还必须清晰地认识到,近百年来全球增温的事实以及其对自然界和对人类社会所造成的各种影响.因此,当今的问题是,导致气候变化原因是错综复杂的,故怎样从人类社会的发展与进步出发,建立共守的以保护绿色地球为宗旨的有机限定.尽管到2050年CO_2浓度为470ppmv的目标限额基本上是可以接受的,但对世界各国而言却难度很大,也是一个极大的挑战.因为全球变暖呼吁低碳经济、低碳生活,以营造一个人类良好的生活与生存空间,故倡导"减法生活",使世界各国必须认真的思考和安排节能高效减排低碳的有关政策配置.为共建和谐世界做出贡献!这也就是说,那种在必要和充分条件均不甚满足的状况下,无休止的争论是毫无意义的!中国人民和政府是负责任的,历来重视节能高效、减排低碳,而且做出了具体的部署和承诺."十一五"期间降低CO_2排放量20%,"十二五"期间降低CO_2排放量40%～45%,以达节能高效、减排低碳与经济腾飞共进,并造福于人类!Copenhagen Climate Conference ended and failed to reach consensus. The developing countries felt disappointment on it and stick to the principle of insisting ＂ The Kyoto Protocol＂. It＇s the basis of solving such problems like global emission space, the emission distribution, the differences effect and the periods of emission. In order to fully understand the relationship between people＇s activity and climate change, we can＇t simply exaggerate and ignore the positive and negative effect of CO2 emission and global warming. The varieties of temperature were uneven, anisotropy and nonlinear in the human history. At the same time, we should know that global warming is not only the disaster, but also the symbol of the civilization advancement. But it＇s also very clear that the temperature raised obviously in recent years, which influenced nature and people indeed. As the reasons of global warming were so complicated, we should consider the whole human society＇s development and protect the green earth. Although the target of 470 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 could be accepted, it＇s still a big challenge and hard work for the whole world. Since the global warming called for low carbon economy and low carbon life, we should propose ＂simple life＂ and enforce all the countries governments to consider some high effect, low carbon economy policies seriously. It can contribute to building the harmony world. The Chinese people and government are very responsible. We had reduced CO2 emission 20 % during ＂Eleventh Five-- Year＂, 40%- 45% during ＂Twelfth Five--Year＂. It can stimulate efficient energy, high effect, reducing emission, low carbon and soaring of economy. It will benefit all humanity.

关 键 词：节能减排 低碳经济 全球变暖 责任与承诺 经济腾飞 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]