某儿童医院急诊人次的季节性分析  

Seasonal Analysis on Emergency Person-time of a Children Hospital

作　　者：李春秀[1] 孙凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学附属南京儿童医院统计室

出　　处：《中国病案》2011年第7期53-54,共2页Chinese Medical Record

摘　　要：目的探讨儿童医院急诊人次的季节变动规律,并采用相应统计方法进行分析,为医院今后急诊工作及制定决策规划提供科学依据。方法利用统计学原理中的移动平均趋势剔除法,分析6年来医院急诊人数,进行动态分析,准确地把握急诊季节变化规律。结果从季节变差来看,第四季度最高。第三季度次之,第一季度、第二季度较羝。可见急诊量的季节变动一年为一个周期,每年各季的变动反复出现,而且变动幅度大致相同。结论儿童医院急诊就诊人次存在着季节变动规律,医院可以在提高诊疗技术的同时按入院人数趋势在不同的季节合理安排医院整体资源,发挥卫生资源的最大效用。Objectives Having an investigation on seasonal fluctuation rules of emergency person-time of children hospital,analyzing by relevant statistic methods in order to provide scientific basis for emergency work and decision plan making of hospital in the future.Methods Using moving average trend removed method in statistic theory to dynamically analyze emergency population for 6 years for that we can master the seasonal fluctuation rules of emergency.Results from the difference of seasonal fluctuation,the forth season is highest;the third season is second;the first and second season are lower.Therefore,the period of the seasonal fluctuation of emergency number is one year.The fluctuation of different seasons in a year appears repeatedly while the fluctuation range is roughly the same.Conclusions Emergency consultation man-time of children hospital exist seasonal fluctuation rules.Hospital can improve diagnosis and treatment technique meanwhile arranges rationally the whole resource in hospital according to hospitalization number trend in different season,developing maximum effectiveness of health resource.

关 键 词：移动平均趋势剔除法 季节变动规律 急诊 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]